Sha Tin 2000m Turf draw bias
Over 66 races from Sun, 25 Jun 2023 to Sun, 25 Oct 2026, draws 1-4 won +31% against their fair share, while draws 5-8 won -20%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.4% of runners; placed (top 3): 36%.
draw 1-4
1.31
win 11.4%
draw 5-8
0.80
win 6.9%
draw 9+
0.87
win 6.8%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A23 races
draw 1-4
1.42
win 12.1%
draw 5-8
0.53
win 4.4%
draw 9+
1.04
win 8.0%