Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 2000m Turf draw bias

Over 65 races from Sun, 25 Jun 2023 to Sat, 27 Jun 2026, draws 1-4 won +29% against their fair share, while draws 5-8 won -18%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.2% of runners; placed (top 3): 36%.

draw 1-4
1.29
win 11.2%
draw 5-8
0.82
win 7.0%
draw 9+
0.88
win 6.9%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A22 races
draw 1-4
1.36
win 11.5%
draw 5-8
0.56
win 4.7%
draw 9+
1.07
win 8.2%

Other Sha Tin distances