Sha Tin 1800m Turf draw bias
Over 84 races from Sat, 10 Jun 2023 to Sun, 8 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +24% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -23%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.9% of runners; placed (top 3): 29%.
draw 1-4
1.24
win 9.9%
draw 5-8
1.03
win 8.2%
draw 9+
0.77
win 5.8%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A20 races
draw 1-4
1.39
win 11.3%
draw 5-8
0.63
win 5.1%
draw 9+
0.98
win 7.4%
Rail C+333 races
draw 1-4
1.28
win 9.8%
draw 5-8
1.19
win 9.2%
draw 9+
0.63
win 4.7%