Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 1800m Turf draw bias

Over 78 races from Sat, 10 Jun 2023 to Sun, 12 Jul 2026, draws 1-4 won +17% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -17%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.4% of runners; placed (top 3): 28%.

draw 1-4
1.17
win 9.4%
draw 5-8
1.03
win 8.1%
draw 9+
0.83
win 6.3%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail C+329 races
draw 1-4
1.23
win 9.5%
draw 5-8
1.12
win 8.7%
draw 9+
0.72
win 5.4%

Other Sha Tin distances