Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 1400m Turf draw bias

Over 451 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 13 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +24% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -19%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 27%.

draw 1-4
1.24
win 9.6%
draw 5-8
0.99
win 7.6%
draw 9+
0.81
win 6.0%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A116 races
draw 1-4
1.06
win 8.5%
draw 5-8
1.13
win 9.0%
draw 9+
0.84
win 6.2%
Rail A+348 races
draw 1-4
1.01
win 7.9%
draw 5-8
1.18
win 9.1%
draw 9+
0.85
win 6.3%
Rail B51 races
draw 1-4
1.78
win 13.8%
draw 5-8
0.86
win 6.6%
draw 9+
0.50
win 3.7%
Rail B+250 races
draw 1-4
1.29
win 10.1%
draw 5-8
0.81
win 6.2%
draw 9+
0.92
win 6.7%
Rail C86 races
draw 1-4
1.17
win 9.0%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 7.4%
draw 9+
0.89
win 6.6%
Rail C+3100 races
draw 1-4
1.33
win 10.0%
draw 5-8
0.92
win 6.9%
draw 9+
0.82
win 6.0%

Other Sha Tin distances