Sha Tin 1400m Turf draw bias
Over 473 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 8 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +25% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -20%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.7% of runners; placed (top 3): 27%.
draw 1-4
1.25
win 9.7%
draw 5-8
1.01
win 7.8%
draw 9+
0.80
win 5.9%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A122 races
draw 1-4
1.06
win 8.5%
draw 5-8
1.16
win 9.2%
draw 9+
0.82
win 6.1%
Rail A+348 races
draw 1-4
1.01
win 7.9%
draw 5-8
1.18
win 9.1%
draw 9+
0.85
win 6.3%
Rail B54 races
draw 1-4
1.87
win 14.4%
draw 5-8
0.81
win 6.2%
draw 9+
0.47
win 3.4%
Rail B+250 races
draw 1-4
1.29
win 10.1%
draw 5-8
0.81
win 6.2%
draw 9+
0.92
win 6.7%
Rail C88 races
draw 1-4
1.15
win 8.8%
draw 5-8
1.02
win 7.8%
draw 9+
0.87
win 6.4%
Rail C+3111 races
draw 1-4
1.32
win 9.9%
draw 5-8
0.95
win 7.1%
draw 9+
0.80
win 5.9%