Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 1200m Turf draw bias

Over 463 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 13 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +25% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -17%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.4% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.

draw 1-4
1.25
win 10.4%
draw 5-8
0.92
win 7.6%
draw 9+
0.83
win 6.5%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A115 races
draw 1-4
1.14
win 9.2%
draw 5-8
1.04
win 8.2%
draw 9+
0.82
win 6.1%
Rail A+355 races
draw 1-4
1.13
win 9.1%
draw 5-8
1.11
win 8.8%
draw 9+
0.79
win 5.8%
Rail B49 races
draw 1-4
1.64
win 12.8%
draw 5-8
0.72
win 5.6%
draw 9+
0.70
win 5.2%
Rail B+257 races
draw 1-4
1.28
win 10.6%
draw 5-8
0.67
win 5.4%
draw 9+
1.03
win 7.7%
Rail C82 races
draw 1-4
1.27
win 11.1%
draw 5-8
0.91
win 8.0%
draw 9+
0.80
win 6.8%
Rail C+3105 races
draw 1-4
1.24
win 10.9%
draw 5-8
0.92
win 8.0%
draw 9+
0.83
win 7.1%

Other Sha Tin distances