Sha Tin 1200m Turf draw bias
Over 484 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 8 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +28% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -18%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.7% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.
draw 1-4
1.28
win 10.7%
draw 5-8
0.90
win 7.4%
draw 9+
0.82
win 6.4%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A123 races
draw 1-4
1.25
win 10.0%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 7.7%
draw 9+
0.79
win 5.9%
Rail A+355 races
draw 1-4
1.13
win 9.1%
draw 5-8
1.11
win 8.8%
draw 9+
0.79
win 5.8%
Rail B51 races
draw 1-4
1.71
win 13.2%
draw 5-8
0.70
win 5.4%
draw 9+
0.67
win 4.9%
Rail B+257 races
draw 1-4
1.28
win 10.6%
draw 5-8
0.67
win 5.4%
draw 9+
1.03
win 7.7%
Rail C86 races
draw 1-4
1.24
win 10.9%
draw 5-8
0.93
win 8.2%
draw 9+
0.80
win 6.8%
Rail C+3112 races
draw 1-4
1.24
win 10.9%
draw 5-8
0.89
win 7.7%
draw 9+
0.86
win 7.4%