Wed, 11 Nov 2026 · Happy Valley9 races · first off 18:40 HKT
  • R1 · 18:406 FORTUNE KINGO 21% · 12 WINDICATOR FAMILY 17% · 11 ONLY U 12%
  • R2 · 19:107 NOBLE FANS 21% · 10 ALWAYS FLUKE 17% · 8 BEAUTY GEMINI 13%
  • R3 · 19:4011 MASTER PHOENIX 16% · 1 ARGENTO OCEAN 14% · 7 CALIFORNIA BAY 14%
All 9 races, sealed before race 1 ↓

The cat handles the luck — the numbers were sealed before race 1.

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Pace maps, running styles, draw bias and body-weight trends from HKJC's own numbers — free, for every Sha Tin and Happy Valley meeting. Our ratings are sealed before the first race and scored after it: the record.

9 races Wed, 11 Nov 2026 · first off 18:40 →Run the race →

2,844 races · 295 meetings since Sun, 4 Jun 2023 · latest Sun, 8 Nov 2026

Last meeting · Sun, 8 Nov 2026our #1 won 2/11 · winner in our top 3 2/11 · favourite 1/11Full record →

Next meeting · Happy Valley · Wed, 11 Nov 2026

Order

9 races from 18:40 HKT. Style = how each horse has raced in its last runs; rating = our baseline form rating (1 best), sealed the morning of the meeting. Run the races yourself →

Race 1 · 18:40 · Tseuk Luk Handicap

Even pace
Class 5 · 1650m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 5 of 12 with history race on the pace▾
6FORTUNE KINGOnext best12WINDICATOR FAMILYfull verdict ▾
5 stalkers6 midfields1 closer
Mr Sha Tin saysFairly confident
6The pickFORTUNE KINGOMidfield · draw 12 · Z Purton
12Next bestWINDICATOR FAMILYStalker · draw 10 · K Teetan
8At a priceMULTISUPERSTARStalker · draw 3 · A Atzeni
Quinella box61211Tierce box612118Place6

FORTUNE KINGO (6) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield.

5 of the 12 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

Draw 12 is a worry: that group wins 47% less often than its share here.

WINDICATOR FAMILY (12) (stalker) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, MULTISUPERSTAR (8) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 95 races at 1650m here, draws 1-4 win 43% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1CIRCUIT CENTURYH T Mo · C S Shum · draw 2 · 135lb · last 6: 13/3/10/12/9/11Stalker#12
  2. 2AMO ERGO SUMS Osborne · B Crawford · draw 1 · 133lb · last 6: 6/12/6/10/9/8Midfield#5
  3. 3APOLAR FIGHTERC L Chau · D Eustace · draw 11 · 133lb · last 6: 13/8/7/8/9/14Midfield#9
  4. 4HEALTHY PONYB Avdulla · C W Chang · draw 7 · 133lb · last 6: 9/9/11/13/6/11Closer#8
  5. 5LOVELY MILESA Badel · P F Yiu · draw 6 · 133lb · last 6: 8/4/12/11/7/6Midfield#6
  6. 6FORTUNE KINGOZ Purton · D J Whyte · draw 12 · 127lb · last 6: 6/2/2/6/10/10Midfield#1
  7. 7YOUNG FIGHTERL Ferraris · C Fownes · draw 5 · 127lb · last 6: 7/12/7/10/9/8Stalker#7
  8. 8MULTISUPERSTARA Atzeni · A S Cruz · draw 3 · 126lb · last 6: 7/9/5/7/6/7Stalker#4
  9. 9TO INFINITYJ Orman · J Richards · draw 4 · 126lb · last 6: 10/11/9/9/7/12Midfield#11
  10. 10LEGENDARY IMPACTR Kingscote · Y S Tsui · draw 9 · 123lb · last 6: 10/12/11/11/7/6Stalker#10
  11. 11ONLY UK C Leung · J Cummings · draw 8 · 123lb · last 6: 8/4/4/6/10/2Midfield#3
  12. 12WINDICATOR FAMILYK Teetan · W K Mo · draw 10 · 120lb · last 6: 3/3/5/7/12/2Stalker#2

Race 2 · 19:10 · Ng Fong Handicap

Even pace
Class 5 · 1200m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 5 of 12 with history race on the pace▾
7NOBLE FANSnext best10ALWAYS FLUKEfull verdict ▾
5 leaders7 midfields
Mr Sha Tin saysFairly confident
7The pickNOBLE FANSMidfield · draw 10 · A Atzeni
10Next bestALWAYS FLUKELeader · draw 3 · H Bentley
Quinella box7108Tierce box7108Place7

NOBLE FANS (7) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield, ran a fast time last start (0.7 sd quicker than par, over this trip), up 22 lb since its last run, backing up after only 10 days.

5 of the 12 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

Draw 10 is a worry: that group wins 41% less often than its share here.

ALWAYS FLUKE (10) (leader) is the clear second string.

Over 140 races at 1200m here, draws 1-4 win 25% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1KING ALLOYR Kingscote · K H Ting · draw 6 · 135lb · last 6: 11/9/1/3/4/3Leader#8
  2. 2MAJESTIC DELIGHTC L Chau · D Eustace · draw 4 · 134lb · last 6: 9/5/12/11/1/4Midfield#9
  3. 3FREE PONYJ Orman · C W Chang · draw 7 · 133lb · last 6: 9/7/6/10/8/9Midfield#7
  4. 4LAKESHORE HEROZ Purton · D J Hall · draw 12 · 133lb · last 6: 8/8/2/2/7/10Midfield#5
  5. 5RUSSET GLOWM Chadwick · M Newnham · draw 9 · 132lb · last 6: 11/8/6/4/12/12Midfield#10
  6. 6MAJESTIC LIFEC Y Ho · C H Yip · draw 5 · 131lb · last 6: 10/13/9/7/10/11Midfield#11
  7. 7NOBLE FANSA Atzeni · J Size · draw 10 · 129lb · last 6: 2/8/5/7/1/8Midfield#1
  8. 8BEAUTY GEMINIA Badel · A S Cruz · draw 1 · 128lb · last 6: 4/7/4/9/13/12Leader#3
  9. 9WINNING NOWL Ferraris · F C Lor · draw 11 · 128lb · last 6: 6/12/9/9/4/2Leader#6
  10. 10ALWAYS FLUKEH Bentley · W Y So · draw 3 · 126lb · last 6: 3/12/5/3/2/6Leader#2
  11. 11BLUE BARONH T Mo · Y S Tsui · draw 2 · 120lb · last 6: 14/7/8/7/5/9Leader#12
  12. 12CHILL MASTERS Osborne · K L Man · draw 8 · 117lb · last 6: 5/7/8/6/3/4Midfield#4

Race 3 · 19:40 · Tai Yau Handicap

Even pace
Class 4 · 1200m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 4 of 10 with history race on the pace▾
11MASTER PHOENIXnext best1ARGENTO OCEANfull verdict ▾
2 leaders2 stalkers5 midfields1 closer2 no history
Mr Sha Tin saysOpen race
11The pickMASTER PHOENIXMidfield · draw 3 · L Ferraris
1Next bestARGENTO OCEANStalker · draw 7 · B Avdulla
10At a pricePRIVATE WEALTHMidfield · draw 4 · J Orman
Quinella box1117Tierce box111710Place11

MASTER PHOENIX (11) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield, up 28 lb since its last run.

4 of the 10 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

MASTER PHOENIX has draw 3, in that favoured group.

ARGENTO OCEAN (1) (stalker) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, PRIVATE WEALTH (10) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 140 races at 1200m here, draws 1-4 win 25% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1ARGENTO OCEANB Avdulla · D J Whyte · draw 7 · 135lb · last 6: 6/5/3/2/5/2Stalker#2
  2. 2LUCKY MCQUEENM F Poon · W K Mo · draw 9 · 134lb · last 6: 5/4/2/1/9/5Midfield#5
  3. 3NEW POWERM L Yeung · C W Chang · draw 10 · 131lb · last 6: 4/1/5/3/8/6Stalker#4
  4. 4BEAUTY SHOWA Atzeni · F C Lor · draw 2 · 128lb · last 6: 12/12/2/2/7/4Leader#12
  5. 5COLOURFUL GOLDA Badel · W Y So · draw 12 · 128lb · last 6: 81 run#9
  6. 6SILVER BLAZEH Y Yuen · P F Yiu · draw 1 · 128lb · last 6: 101 run#10
  7. 7CALIFORNIA BAYK Teetan · A S Cruz · draw 5 · 125lb · last 6: 4/3/10/12/5/7Closer#3
  8. 8IRON SECURITYC L Chau · Y S Tsui · draw 11 · 125lb · last 6: 9/2/10/10/6/9Leader#7
  9. 9SPEEDY PATCHE C W Wong · K L Man · draw 6 · 125lb · last 6: 14/4/8/9Midfield#11
  10. 10PRIVATE WEALTHJ Orman · D J Hall · draw 4 · 124lb · last 6: 10/11/5/9Midfield#8
  11. 11MASTER PHOENIXL Ferraris · D Eustace · draw 3 · 123lb · last 6: 2/3/4/10/8/4Midfield#1
  12. 12LEGEND STARL Hewitson · C S Shum · draw 8 · 118lb · last 6: 3/2/9/10/12/6Midfield#6

Race 4 · 20:10 · Sze Mei Handicap

Even pace
Class 4 · 1650m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 4 of 12 with history race on the pace▾
6AMAZING GAZEnext best7FLYING BOOMfull verdict ▾
2 leaders2 stalkers6 midfields2 closers
Mr Sha Tin saysOpen race
6The pickAMAZING GAZEStalker · draw 7 · Z Purton
7Next bestFLYING BOOMMidfield · draw 12 · K Teetan
1At a priceACEStalker · draw 2 · C L Chau
Quinella box6711Tierce box67111Place6

AMAZING GAZE (6) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a stalker, ran a fast time last start (0.9 sd quicker than par).

4 of the 12 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

FLYING BOOM (7) (midfield) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, ACE (1) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 95 races at 1650m here, draws 1-4 win 43% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1ACEC L Chau · M Newnham · draw 2 · 135lb · last 6: 1/8/6/10/1/7Stalker#4
  2. 2GLORIOUS DYNASTYL Hewitson · B Crawford · draw 4 · 132lb · last 6: 10/6/12/6Midfield#10
  3. 3GOLDEN BRILLIANTJ Orman · C Fownes · draw 3 · 131lb · last 6: 5/1/1/4/4/10Midfield#6
  4. 4VECUA Atzeni · A S Cruz · draw 6 · 131lb · last 6: 13/10/11/11Leader#12
  5. 5CIRCUIT FIERYS Osborne · W Y So · draw 10 · 128lb · last 6: 11/9/11/5/2/3Leader#8
  6. 6AMAZING GAZEZ Purton · D A Hayes · draw 7 · 127lb · last 6: 3/6/1/6/6/6Stalker#1
  7. 7FLYING BOOMK Teetan · C W Chang · draw 12 · 126lb · last 6: 6/2/3/4/5/11Midfield#2
  8. 8KINGMAN REEFB Avdulla · J Size · draw 11 · 125lb · last 6: 2/7/13/13Closer#5
  9. 9JUMBO STEPSK C Leung · P C Ng · draw 8 · 124lb · last 6: 7/8/6/11/11/7Midfield#9
  10. 10SEA CHARIOTH Bentley · W K Mo · draw 9 · 122lb · last 6: 8/7/8/5/9/11Midfield#11
  11. 11CHEERFUL WONGCHOYA Badel · D J Whyte · draw 1 · 121lb · last 6: 1/5/4/8/8/8Midfield#3
  12. 12AESTHETICISMM F Poon · D J Hall · draw 5 · 118lb · last 6: 4/7/6/9/8/4Closer#7

Race 5 · 20:40 · Sze Mei Handicap

Even pace
Class 4 · 1650m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 4 of 11 with history race on the pace▾
1AKERMANIS GOLDnext best10FORTUNE STARfull verdict ▾
1 leader3 stalkers5 midfields2 closers1 no history
Mr Sha Tin saysFairly confident
1The pickAKERMANIS GOLDMidfield · draw 7 · C L Chau
10Next bestFORTUNE STARCloser · draw 3 · A Atzeni
4At a priceGOLDEN ACECloser · draw 4 · B Avdulla
Quinella box11012Tierce box110124Place1

AKERMANIS GOLD (1) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield.

4 of the 11 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

FORTUNE STAR (10) (closer) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, GOLDEN ACE (4) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 95 races at 1650m here, draws 1-4 win 43% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1AKERMANIS GOLDC L Chau · D Eustace · draw 7 · 135lb · last 6: 1/1/5/9/6/9Midfield#1
  2. 2GENERAL REDWOODE C W Wong · C S Shum · draw 11 · 134lb · last 6: 13/9/3/1/10/1Stalker#12
  3. 3URANUS STARC Y Ho · K W Lui · draw 10 · 133lb · last 6: 8/8/9/7/7/12Stalker#8
  4. 4GOLDEN ACEB Avdulla · C Fownes · draw 4 · 125lb · last 6: 6/6/3Closer#5
  5. 5ROAD TO GLORYZ Purton · J Richards · draw 9 · 125lb · last 6: 11/8/2Midfield#7
  6. 6STEADFAST FORTJ Orman · W Y So · draw 12 · 124lb · last 6: 8/112 runs#9
  7. 7TAKE ACTIONS Osborne · J Size · draw 5 · 124lb · last 6: 9/7/12/4/4/1Midfield#6
  8. 8BUCEPHALASL Ferraris · W K Mo · draw 2 · 123lb · last 6: 10/6/6/14/14/11Stalker#10
  9. 9JOLLY BONUSK C Leung · F C Lor · draw 6 · 122lb · last 6: 11/12/11Midfield#11
  10. 10FORTUNE STARA Atzeni · M Newnham · draw 3 · 118lb · last 6: 3/5/7/12/5/5Closer#2
  11. 11SURE JOYFULH Y Yuen · P F Yiu · draw 8 · 118lb · last 6: 3/3/10/3/10/3Leader#4
  12. 12HAPPY PROMISEK Teetan · D A Hayes · draw 1 · 117lb · last 6: 2/10/5/11/4/4Midfield#3

Race 6 · 21:10 · Tai Yau Handicap

Hot pace likely
Class 4 · 1200m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 8 of 10 with history race on the pace▾
11WINNING MACHINEnext best4CLOUD NINEfull verdict ▾
5 leaders3 stalkers1 midfield1 closer2 no history
Mr Sha Tin saysConfident
11The pickWINNING MACHINELeader · draw 1 · E C W Wong
4Next bestCLOUD NINELeader · draw 6 · Z Purton
7At a priceCOUNTRY PRIDEStalker · draw 2 · A Atzeni
Quinella box1141Tierce box11417Place11

WINNING MACHINE (11) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a leader, up 31 lb since its last run, first run for 4 months.

8 of the 10 runners with history race on the pace — that is a lot of early speed, so expect a strong tempo that suits the closers.

WINNING MACHINE has draw 1, in that favoured group.

CLOUD NINE (4) (leader) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, COUNTRY PRIDE (7) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 140 races at 1200m here, draws 1-4 win 25% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1FORERUNNERH Y Yuen · W K Mo · draw 3 · 135lb · last 6: 6/2/2/4/1/2Midfield#3
  2. 2WITHOUT RHYMEK Teetan · A S Cruz · draw 8 · 132lb · last 6: 14/14/14/12Closer#11
  3. 3WATCH LEGENDH T Mo · Y S Tsui · draw 4 · 130lb · last 6: 14/8/12/14/14Stalker#12
  4. 4CLOUD NINEZ Purton · M Newnham · draw 6 · 129lb · last 6: 2/2/4/2/12/4Leader#2
  5. 5FLOW RIDERM F Poon · D J Hall · draw 7 · 128lb · last 6: 31 run#7
  6. 6MR INVINCIBLEC L Chau · P F Yiu · draw 12 · 128lb · last 6: 41 run#6
  7. 7COUNTRY PRIDEA Atzeni · J Size · draw 2 · 126lb · last 6: 5/3/3/12/3Stalker#5
  8. 8INVICTUSJ Orman · D J Whyte · draw 5 · 123lb · last 6: 6/4/4/4/3/7Leader#4
  9. 9THUNDER PRINCEB Avdulla · J Richards · draw 9 · 121lb · last 6: 5/7/3/9/5/6Stalker#8
  10. 10LUCKY DOCTORC Y Ho · P C Ng · draw 11 · 120lb · last 6: 9/6/11/7/8/12Leader#10
  11. 11WINNING MACHINEE C W Wong · C Fownes · draw 1 · 120lb · last 6: 3/1/2/2/3/4Leader#1
  12. 12TOP TO SKYM L Yeung · C H Yip · draw 10 · 118lb · last 6: 7/5/11/12/1/1Leader#9

Race 7 · 21:45 · Sam Chuk Handicap

Hot pace likely
Class 3 · 1200m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 5 of 10 with history race on the pace▾
5LEADING AGILITYnext best7LUCRATIVE EIGHTfull verdict ▾
2 leaders3 stalkers3 midfields2 closers2 no history
Mr Sha Tin saysConfident
5The pickLEADING AGILITYStalker · draw 6 · C L Chau
7Next bestLUCRATIVE EIGHTStalker · draw 3 · H Y Yuen
2At a priceAURORA PATCHStalker · draw 2 · E C W Wong
Quinella box571Tierce box5712Place5

LEADING AGILITY (5) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a stalker, ran a fast time last start (1.0 sd quicker than par, over this trip), up 20 lb since its last run.

5 of the 10 runners with history race on the pace — that is a lot of early speed, so expect a strong tempo that suits the closers.

LUCRATIVE EIGHT (7) (stalker) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, AURORA PATCH (2) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 140 races at 1200m here, draws 1-4 win 25% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1SWIFT ASCENDZ Purton · D Eustace · draw 10 · 135lb · last 6: 2/9/4/5/2/3Midfield#3
  2. 2AURORA PATCHE C W Wong · K L Man · draw 2 · 130lb · last 6: 6/3/3/5/7/3Stalker#6
  3. 3MIGHTY COMMANDERC Y Ho · C Fownes · draw 1 · 128lb · last 6: 7/6/7/6/1/8Closer#12
  4. 4JUBILANT WINNERB Avdulla · J Richards · draw 12 · 125lb · last 6: 9/3/11/5/9/5Midfield#11
  5. 5LEADING AGILITYC L Chau · C S Shum · draw 6 · 125lb · last 6: 1/2/1/3/1/4Stalker#1
  6. 6ELITE GOLFH Bentley · W Y So · draw 4 · 123lb · last 6: 9/8/1/2/1/5Leader#7
  7. 7LUCRATIVE EIGHTH Y Yuen · P F Yiu · draw 3 · 121lb · last 6: 4/7/1/2/2/2Stalker#2
  8. 8MASK WARRIORA Badel · J Cummings · draw 11 · 121lb · last 6: 31 run#4
  9. 9A AMERIC TE SPECSOA Atzeni · J Size · draw 9 · 120lb · last 6: 6/10/5/7/10/10Closer#9
  10. 10STAR COMMANDERM F Poon · K W Lui · draw 8 · 120lb · last 6: -unraced here#10
  11. 11DARYL FLASHS Osborne · Y S Tsui · draw 7 · 118lb · last 6: 9/2/8/6/13/8Midfield#8
  12. 12SPEEDY SMARTIEK Teetan · B Crawford · draw 5 · 116lb · last 6: 4/2/4/2/3/2Leader#5

Race 8 · 22:15 · Fung Mo Handicap

Hot pace likely
Class 3 · 1800m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 6 of 12 with history race on the pace▾
1POPE CODYnext best10FLYING FORTUNEfull verdict ▾
2 leaders4 stalkers4 midfields2 closers
Mr Sha Tin saysFairly confident
1The pickPOPE CODYMidfield · draw 9 · A Badel
10Next bestFLYING FORTUNEStalker · draw 2 · C Y Ho
12At a priceHYMNBOOKCloser · draw 1 · H Bentley
Quinella box11011Tierce box1101112Place1

POPE CODY (1) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield, ran a fast time last start (0.9 sd quicker than par).

6 of the 12 runners with history race on the pace — that is a lot of early speed, so expect a strong tempo that suits the closers.

FLYING FORTUNE (10) (stalker) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, HYMNBOOK (12) has the closer's profile this pace favours.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1POPE CODYA Badel · Y S Tsui · draw 9 · 135lb · last 6: 3/4/1/2/6/3Midfield#1
  2. 2FIVEFORTWOC L Chau · K W Lui · draw 4 · 133lb · last 6: 4/2/3/3/2/5Midfield#4
  3. 3CHINA WINZ Purton · D A Hayes · draw 3 · 131lb · last 6: 1/4/3/5/3/2Stalker#5
  4. 4MISTER DAPPERB Avdulla · D Eustace · draw 11 · 130lb · last 6: 9/4/4/9/10/2Leader#8
  5. 5CALL ME MAGNIFIQUEE C W Wong · C S Shum · draw 6 · 129lb · last 6: 7/7/1/12/13Stalker#10
  6. 6FALLONM L Yeung · A S Cruz · draw 7 · 128lb · last 6: 9/10/10/8/7/8Closer#12
  7. 7VIOLET STARA Atzeni · D J Whyte · draw 10 · 124lb · last 6: 3/12/4/5/1/10Midfield#7
  8. 8RISING PHOENIXJ Orman · D J Hall · draw 5 · 123lb · last 6: 8/2/13/1/7/8Midfield#9
  9. 9SONIC LINERL Hewitson · J Richards · draw 12 · 121lb · last 6: 11/12/9Stalker#11
  10. 10FLYING FORTUNEC Y Ho · W K Mo · draw 2 · 119lb · last 6: 5/7/1/4/3/12Stalker#2
  11. 11SHOOTING TO TOPK Teetan · W K Mo · draw 8 · 118lb · last 6: 1/2/6/2/4/5Leader#3
  12. 12HYMNBOOKH Bentley · C Fownes · draw 1 · 117lb · last 6: 6/5/3/8/3/6Closer#6

Race 9 · 22:50 · Lung Cheung Handicap

Even pace
Class 2 · 1650m · Turf · rail B · 12 runners · 4 of 11 with history race on the pace▾
7LUCKY SAM GORnext best4DEFINITIVEfull verdict ▾
1 leader3 stalkers5 midfields2 closers1 no history
Mr Sha Tin saysConfident
7The pickLUCKY SAM GORMidfield · draw 10 · C L Chau
4Next bestDEFINITIVEStalker · draw 4 · K Teetan
3At a pricePACKING ANGELMidfield · draw 3 · H Bentley
Quinella box7412Tierce box74123Place7

LUCKY SAM GOR (7) is the pick: the best recent form in the race, races as a midfield, ran a fast time last start (1.4 sd quicker than par, over this trip).

4 of the 11 runners with history race on the pace, which reads like an even gallop.

Draw 10 is a worry: that group wins 47% less often than its share here.

DEFINITIVE (4) (stalker) is the clear second string.

For something at a price, PACKING ANGEL (3) is drawn in the group that wins well here.

Over 95 races at 1650m here, draws 1-4 win 43% more often than their share with the rail at B.

Form, last-run speed and pace only — no prices. Every runner's rank is sealed before race 1 and scored on the record page.
  1. 1HELENE FEELINGE C W Wong · C S Shum · draw 9 · 135lb · last 6: 2/3/9/11/5/4Stalker#7
  2. 2SIX PACKL Ferraris · D J Whyte · draw 11 · 134lb · last 6: 10/8/4/1/2/3Stalker#11
  3. 3PACKING ANGELH Bentley · K W Lui · draw 3 · 129lb · last 6: 6/5/6/4/1/3Midfield#5
  4. 4DEFINITIVEK Teetan · D Eustace · draw 4 · 125lb · last 6: 8/1/7/1/3/5Stalker#2
  5. 5BRAVEFIELDZ Purton · C S Shum · draw 5 · 123lb · last 6: 5/112 runs#8
  6. 6NAUTICAL FORCEM L Yeung · J Size · draw 12 · 123lb · last 6: 10/8/4/1Closer#12
  7. 7LUCKY SAM GORC L Chau · M Newnham · draw 10 · 122lb · last 6: 1/5/3/7/2/1Midfield#1
  8. 8MIGHTY MASTSA Atzeni · W Y So · draw 7 · 122lb · last 6: 6/8/3/3/1/2Closer#4
  9. 9ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLEA Badel · M Newnham · draw 6 · 121lb · last 6: 8/5/1/1/3/1Leader#6
  10. 10AWESOME FLUKES Osborne · P F Yiu · draw 8 · 121lb · last 6: 4/7/10/11/9/6Midfield#9
  11. 11REGAL GEMK C Leung · F C Lor · draw 1 · 121lb · last 6: 11/5/3/8/11/3Midfield#10
  12. 12FORTUNATE SONC Y Ho · W K Mo · draw 2 · 119lb · last 6: 6/1/1/10/2/4Midfield#3

What the numbers mean

Running style and pace shape

HKJC records every horse's position at each call of a race. We take a horse's early position as a share of the field over its last six runs: Leader (front quarter), Stalker, Midfield, Closer (back quarter). A race with many leaders and stalkers is likely to be run hard, which usually helps closers; with few, the leaders can dictate. Three past runs are needed before we show a style.

Rating (v0.3: form + speed)

Two parts, no prices. Form: each of the last five finishes as a share of the field (won = 1, last = 0), weighted towards the latest run; missing runs count as average. Speed: the last run's time against the par for that course, surface, distance and going, weighted a little more when it was over today's trip. Speed was the one layer that kept an edge inside every price band over 47,000 past runs; it does not beat the takeout on its own. The record page shows how the rating performs.

Win chance (from v0.3): the rating turned into a share of 100% within the race, exp(4.60 × rating) over the field, with the 4.60 fitted once on 2,760 past races and then fixed. It is sealed with the ranks and drives the race simulator.

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