Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 1600m Turf draw bias

Over 199 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 13 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +25% against their fair share, while draws 5-8 won -19%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.1% of runners; placed (top 3): 27%.

draw 1-4
1.25
win 10.1%
draw 5-8
0.81
win 6.4%
draw 9+
0.94
win 6.9%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A48 races
draw 1-4
0.80
win 6.3%
draw 5-8
1.16
win 9.0%
draw 9+
1.03
win 7.7%
Rail A+323 races
draw 1-4
1.42
win 13.2%
draw 5-8
0.63
win 5.7%
draw 9+
0.90
win 6.9%
Rail B+226 races
draw 1-4
1.02
win 8.7%
draw 5-8
0.87
win 7.1%
draw 9+
1.09
win 8.1%
Rail C43 races
draw 1-4
1.78
win 13.5%
draw 5-8
0.62
win 4.7%
draw 9+
0.70
win 5.1%
Rail C+342 races
draw 1-4
1.52
win 11.4%
draw 5-8
0.56
win 4.2%
draw 9+
0.95
win 6.9%

Other Sha Tin distances