Sha Tin 1600m Turf draw bias
Over 207 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 8 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +28% against their fair share, while draws 5-8 won -20%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.3% of runners; placed (top 3): 28%.
draw 1-4
1.28
win 10.3%
draw 5-8
0.80
win 6.3%
draw 9+
0.93
win 6.8%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A51 races
draw 1-4
0.82
win 6.4%
draw 5-8
1.16
win 9.0%
draw 9+
1.02
win 7.6%
Rail A+323 races
draw 1-4
1.42
win 13.2%
draw 5-8
0.63
win 5.7%
draw 9+
0.90
win 6.9%
Rail B+226 races
draw 1-4
1.02
win 8.7%
draw 5-8
0.87
win 7.1%
draw 9+
1.09
win 8.1%
Rail C44 races
draw 1-4
1.82
win 13.7%
draw 5-8
0.60
win 4.5%
draw 9+
0.68
win 5.0%
Rail C+346 races
draw 1-4
1.60
win 12.0%
draw 5-8
0.51
win 3.8%
draw 9+
0.92
win 6.7%