Draw bias · Sha Tin

Sha Tin 1000m Turf draw bias

Over 126 races from Sat, 10 Jun 2023 to Sun, 13 Sept 2026, draws 5-8 won +8% against their fair share, while draws 1-4 won -5%. Win rate from 5-8: 9.1% of runners; placed (top 3): 25%.

draw 1-4
0.95
win 8.1%
draw 5-8
1.08
win 9.1%
draw 9+
0.95
win 7.2%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail C35 races
draw 1-4
1.34
win 11.9%
draw 5-8
0.90
win 7.6%
draw 9+
0.76
win 5.7%
Rail C+330 races
draw 1-4
0.82
win 6.7%
draw 5-8
1.28
win 10.3%
draw 9+
0.83
win 6.2%

Other Sha Tin distances