Sha Tin 1000m Turf draw bias
Over 133 races from Sat, 10 Jun 2023 to Sun, 25 Oct 2026, draws 5-8 won +10% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -6%. Win rate from 5-8: 9.1% of runners; placed (top 3): 25%.
draw 1-4
0.94
win 8.1%
draw 5-8
1.10
win 9.1%
draw 9+
0.94
win 7.1%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail C36 races
draw 1-4
1.31
win 11.6%
draw 5-8
0.87
win 7.4%
draw 9+
0.81
win 6.1%
Rail C+332 races
draw 1-4
0.87
win 7.1%
draw 5-8
1.30
win 10.5%
draw 9+
0.77
win 5.7%