Sha Tin 1650m All Weather draw bias
Over 100 races from Sun, 24 Sept 2023 to Wed, 28 Oct 2026, draws 1-4 won +17% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -17%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 28%.
draw 1-4
1.17
win 9.6%
draw 5-8
1.01
win 8.2%
draw 9+
0.83
win 6.3%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.