Sha Tin 1650m All Weather draw bias
Over 92 races from Sun, 24 Sept 2023 to Sat, 27 Jun 2026, draws 1-4 won +18% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -13%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 27%.
draw 1-4
1.18
win 9.6%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 7.8%
draw 9+
0.87
win 6.6%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.