Sha Tin 1200m All Weather draw bias
Over 152 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sun, 8 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +39% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -32%. Win rate from 1-4: 12.1% of runners; placed (top 3): 30%.
draw 1-4
1.39
win 12.1%
draw 5-8
0.90
win 7.8%
draw 9+
0.68
win 5.7%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.