Sha Tin 1200m All Weather draw bias
Over 140 races from Sun, 4 Jun 2023 to Sat, 4 Jul 2026, draws 1-4 won +47% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -36%. Win rate from 1-4: 12.8% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.
draw 1-4
1.47
win 12.8%
draw 5-8
0.85
win 7.4%
draw 9+
0.64
win 5.4%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.