Draw bias · Happy Valley

Happy Valley 1800m Turf draw bias

Over 92 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 23 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +9% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -6%. Win rate from 1-4: 9.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.

draw 1-4
1.09
win 9.6%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 8.5%
draw 9+
0.94
win 8.0%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A23 races
draw 1-4
1.17
win 10.0%
draw 5-8
0.89
win 7.6%
draw 9+
0.94
win 8.0%
Rail B26 races
draw 1-4
0.86
win 7.7%
draw 5-8
1.02
win 8.9%
draw 9+
1.13
win 9.5%
Rail C24 races
draw 1-4
0.91
win 8.3%
draw 5-8
1.38
win 12.6%
draw 9+
0.61
win 5.3%

Other Happy Valley distances