Happy Valley 1800m Turf draw bias
Over 96 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Sun, 1 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +13% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -10%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.0% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.
draw 1-4
1.13
win 10.0%
draw 5-8
0.96
win 8.4%
draw 9+
0.90
win 7.6%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A25 races
draw 1-4
1.30
win 11.2%
draw 5-8
0.81
win 7.0%
draw 9+
0.88
win 7.5%
Rail B26 races
draw 1-4
0.86
win 7.7%
draw 5-8
1.02
win 8.9%
draw 9+
1.13
win 9.5%
Rail C24 races
draw 1-4
0.91
win 8.3%
draw 5-8
1.38
win 12.6%
draw 9+
0.61
win 5.3%
Rail C+321 races
draw 1-4
1.54
win 13.4%
draw 5-8
0.55
win 4.8%
draw 9+
0.92
win 7.9%