Draw bias · Happy Valley

Happy Valley 1650m Turf draw bias

Over 330 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 23 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +17% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -28%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.3% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.

draw 1-4
1.17
win 10.3%
draw 5-8
1.05
win 9.2%
draw 9+
0.72
win 6.2%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A105 races
draw 1-4
1.10
win 9.6%
draw 5-8
1.13
win 9.9%
draw 9+
0.71
win 6.1%
Rail B92 races
draw 1-4
1.42
win 12.6%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 8.6%
draw 9+
0.55
win 4.7%
Rail C74 races
draw 1-4
1.12
win 9.9%
draw 5-8
1.07
win 9.4%
draw 9+
0.75
win 6.4%
Rail C+359 races
draw 1-4
0.98
win 8.5%
draw 5-8
1.03
win 9.0%
draw 9+
1.00
win 8.5%

Other Happy Valley distances