Happy Valley 1650m Turf draw bias
Over 344 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 4 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +18% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -27%. Win rate from 1-4: 10.4% of runners; placed (top 3): 31%.
draw 1-4
1.18
win 10.4%
draw 5-8
1.03
win 9.1%
draw 9+
0.73
win 6.3%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A111 races
draw 1-4
1.12
win 9.8%
draw 5-8
1.10
win 9.6%
draw 9+
0.73
win 6.3%
Rail B95 races
draw 1-4
1.43
win 12.8%
draw 5-8
0.96
win 8.6%
draw 9+
0.53
win 4.5%
Rail C74 races
draw 1-4
1.12
win 9.9%
draw 5-8
1.07
win 9.4%
draw 9+
0.75
win 6.4%
Rail C+364 races
draw 1-4
0.99
win 8.7%
draw 5-8
0.99
win 8.7%
draw 9+
1.01
win 8.6%