Happy Valley 1000m Turf draw bias
Over 136 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 4 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +24% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -32%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.3% of runners; placed (top 3): 32%.
draw 1-4
1.24
win 11.3%
draw 5-8
1.01
win 9.2%
draw 9+
0.68
win 5.8%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A39 races
draw 1-4
1.22
win 10.9%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 8.5%
draw 9+
0.77
win 6.6%
Rail B45 races
draw 1-4
1.16
win 10.7%
draw 5-8
1.05
win 9.7%
draw 9+
0.73
win 6.3%
Rail C24 races
draw 1-4
1.57
win 13.7%
draw 5-8
0.83
win 7.3%
draw 9+
0.55
win 4.7%
Rail C+328 races
draw 1-4
1.13
win 10.7%
draw 5-8
1.16
win 10.9%
draw 9+
0.57
win 4.9%