Draw bias · Happy Valley

Happy Valley 1000m Turf draw bias

Over 130 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 23 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +27% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -34%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 32%.

draw 1-4
1.27
win 11.6%
draw 5-8
0.99
win 9.0%
draw 9+
0.66
win 5.6%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A38 races
draw 1-4
1.25
win 11.2%
draw 5-8
0.99
win 8.7%
draw 9+
0.71
win 6.0%
Rail B43 races
draw 1-4
1.15
win 10.6%
draw 5-8
1.10
win 10.1%
draw 9+
0.67
win 5.9%
Rail C24 races
draw 1-4
1.57
win 13.7%
draw 5-8
0.83
win 7.3%
draw 9+
0.55
win 4.7%
Rail C+325 races
draw 1-4
1.24
win 12.0%
draw 5-8
0.96
win 9.2%
draw 9+
0.67
win 5.7%

Other Happy Valley distances