Draw bias · Happy Valley

Happy Valley 1200m Turf draw bias

Over 482 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 23 Sept 2026, draws 1-4 won +33% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -40%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.6% of runners; placed (top 3): 34%.

draw 1-4
1.33
win 11.6%
draw 5-8
1.04
win 9.0%
draw 9+
0.60
win 5.1%

Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.

By rail position

Sha Tin and Happy Valley move the turf rail (A, B, C, C+3 …) through the season, which changes how far the inside has to travel. Only rails with 20+ races are shown.
Rail A135 races
draw 1-4
1.44
win 12.6%
draw 5-8
0.87
win 7.6%
draw 9+
0.66
win 5.7%
Rail B136 races
draw 1-4
1.27
win 10.9%
draw 5-8
1.15
win 10.0%
draw 9+
0.54
win 4.6%
Rail C121 races
draw 1-4
1.28
win 11.3%
draw 5-8
1.14
win 9.9%
draw 9+
0.53
win 4.6%
Rail C+390 races
draw 1-4
1.31
win 11.4%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 8.4%
draw 9+
0.66
win 5.6%

Other Happy Valley distances