Happy Valley 1200m Turf draw bias
Over 504 races from Wed, 7 Jun 2023 to Wed, 4 Nov 2026, draws 1-4 won +32% against their fair share, while draws 9+ won -38%. Win rate from 1-4: 11.5% of runners; placed (top 3): 34%.
draw 1-4
1.32
win 11.5%
draw 5-8
1.02
win 8.9%
draw 9+
0.62
win 5.3%
Index = wins ÷ expected wins, where each runner's expectation is 1 ÷ field size. 1.00 is fair. Races with fewer than four finishers are left out.
By rail position
Rail A144 races
draw 1-4
1.41
win 12.3%
draw 5-8
0.85
win 7.5%
draw 9+
0.71
win 6.1%
Rail B140 races
draw 1-4
1.25
win 10.8%
draw 5-8
1.12
win 9.7%
draw 9+
0.59
win 5.0%
Rail C121 races
draw 1-4
1.28
win 11.3%
draw 5-8
1.14
win 9.9%
draw 9+
0.53
win 4.6%
Rail C+399 races
draw 1-4
1.35
win 11.6%
draw 5-8
0.97
win 8.4%
draw 9+
0.63
win 5.4%